EN 中文
首页 > 聚焦 > 采访 > MNI专访 | 李扬:应加强货币政策和财政政策协调配合
Home > Foucs > Interview > MNI专访 | 李扬:应加强货币政策和财政政策协调配合

MNI专访 | 李扬:应加强货币政策和财政政策协调配合

受访者: Interviewe: 李扬 2021-04-30 2021年04月30日
2021年4月13日,国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬接受美国国际市场新闻社(MNI)专访,对我国当前的经济金融形势作出判断,并针对MNI记者关于我国债务处置、风险化解、财政政策与货币政策协调配合等方面的具体问题,一一作出解答。本期专访分为上、下篇,将于今明两日陆续发出。

北京(MNI)— 中国央行货币委员会前成员、财政部现任顾问李扬接受了美国国际市场新闻社(MNI)的专访。李扬表示,中国人民银行可以通过增持中国国债,帮助填补国债收益率曲线,提高国债流动性。同时,公共部门借贷需要进行再平衡,进一步向更为短期的债务倾斜。

BEIJING (MNI) - The People's Bank of China should increase holdings of China Government Bonds to help fill out the yield curve and make the securities more liquid, a former member of the central bank's monetary policy committee and current advisor to the Ministry of Finance told MNI, adding that public borrowing should also be rebalanced toward more short-term debt.

中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬接受采访时表示,中国人民银行可以通过再贷款工具或公开市场操作接受中国国债作为其向金融机构发放贷款的抵押物。同时,政府应加强超短期与长期债券的发行,以充实国债收益率曲线的末端。

The PBOC could accept more CGB as collateral against loans to banks via its relending facilities or open market operations, said Li Yang, chairman of the National Institution for Finance & Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. At the same time, the government may have to boost issuance of ultra-short-term and long-term debt to better populate the end of the curve, he said.

中国人民银行公布的资产负债表显示,“央行对政府债权”科目余额当前为1.53万亿元,仅占其38.3万亿元总资产的3.98%。李扬表示,与其他国家央行的本国主权债券持有额相比,这一比例仍然过低。

The PBOC's balance sheet currently lists CNY1.53 trillion in claims on the government, accounting for only 3.98% of its total CNY38.3 trillion in assets, which Li said was too little compared to other central banks' holdings of their sovereign bonds.

虽然完整收益率曲线的形成将促进利率市场化的进一步发展,但李扬也认为中国应进一步放松资本流动的限制,以允许更灵活的汇率波动,奠定人民币作为真正储备货币的地位,鼓励中国各个产业所需产品使用人民币计价。

While completing the yield curve should help further liberalise the interest rate system, Li has also argued for China to further relax restrictions on capital flows and to permit greater flexibility in the exchange rate on the way to establishing the yuan as a true reserve currency and to encouraging more yuan pricing of commodities essential to Chinese industry.

资本输出国 / CAPITAL EXPORTER

李扬表示,过去几年,中国持续成为资本净输出国,以其庞大的经济体量,足以承受资金的国际流动。即使美国加息成为现实,那也将降低中美国债收益率差异,从而有助于中国而非对其产生危害。

A net exporter of capital for the past few years, China is large enough to withstand international movements of funds, Li said, adding that a possible hike in U.S. interest rates would not harm China and could even help it, by reducing yield differentials.

李扬建议,人民银行还应将股权、债券、不动产与大宗商品纳入其政策框架。尽管近年来迅猛发展的电子商务行业降低了消费物价指数,但是生产者价格仍不稳定。

The PBOC should also factor in prices of assets such as equities, bonds, property and commodities into its policy framework, the award-winning economist suggested. Booming e-commerce has held down consumer price inflation in recent years, but producer prices have remained volatile, he said.

同时,中国经济仍面临着疫情后恢复不均衡的挑战,如果再次开放国门,新冠疫情有可能再度扩散。李扬继续表示,只要不利因素持续,人民银行有可能继续维持利率不变。

In the meantime, the economy still faces challenges from an unbalanced post-pandemic recovery, together with the danger that Covid-19 could spread again if Chinese borders are reopened, Li said, adding that the PBOC is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged so long as headwinds persist.

李扬说,“我们不应对经济形势过于乐观,政策制定者也意识到了不确定因素的存在,因此宏观政策也强调经济形势不会出现强势U型反弹。目前谈加息或降息还为时过早。”

"We should not be overly optimistic about the (economic) situation and policymakers are also aware of the uncertainties, so macro policy has stressed that it will not make a sharp U-turn…It is not the time to talk about rates hike or reduction," he said.

尽管针对小型企业的刺激政策有效促进了生产恢复,但消费仍然相对滞后,在就业市场提振后方可改善。

While production has recovered fast thanks to stimulus aimed at small business, consumption has lagged and will only improve together with a stronger jobs market.

疫苗接种滞后 / LAGGING VACCINATION

李扬表示,重新开放国门的时机仍不确定。尽管中国新冠疫苗接种正在加速推进,但其速度仍落后于美国,且目前仍不清楚主要国家在决定放行境外旅客时,是否会相互认可彼此的新冠疫苗接种记录。

The date of reopening borders remains a big uncertainty, Li said. While vaccination efforts are accelerating in China, they still lag the U.S. pace and it is not clear either whether major countries will recognize each other's inoculations when deciding whom to allow to enter, he continued.

长期而言,随着中国进入老龄化社会,经济增长将逐渐放缓,政策制定者需应对创新不足与不断严苛的环保标准所带来的挑战。李扬表示,只要不出现中美关系急剧恶化、爆发另一场全球大流行疾病或其他非预期的重大事件,中国经济未来15年应能够实现5%的潜在增长率。

For the longer term, China still faces a gradual decline in growth as the population ages, and policymakers have to grapple with constrained innovation and increasing environmental controls. However, the country should be able to achieve a potential growth rate of about 5% annually over the next 15 years in the absence of unexpected major events such as a sharp deterioration in relations with the U.S. or another pandemic, Li said.

李扬认为,一旦出现中美进一步脱钩,中国面临的最大风险之一是美国有可能迫使中国企业从美国股市退市。即使中国并不缺乏资本,但是在美股上市仍有助于中国企业获取先进技术与专长、改善企业治理、拓展国际市场。

One of the biggest dangers China faces in case of further decoupling with the U.S. would be potential moves to delist Chinese companies from American stock markets, Li said. While China is not short of capital, U.S. listings help Chinese companies acquire expertise and technology, improve governance, and expand internationally, he said.