Preface I Since the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, more and more people have tended to use the phrase ‘new normal’ to describe domestic and international economic development patterns; other terms have also been used, such as ‘new phase’, ‘new era’ and ‘new order’. However, despite its growing popularity, the term ‘new normal’ does not have exactly the same origin or meaning in different countries. Internationally, the term ‘new normal’ was initially linked with economic recession. In the economic context, it first appeared in Western media in 2002, when it was mainly used to refer to economic recovery without employment growth. In the wake of the global financial crisis, the term quickly applied to new global economic characteristics in the post-crisis era. In 2009, some media and renowned scholars started using the concept of ‘new normal’ in the sense of a long and in-depth adjustment after the crisis. For example, in 2010, Mohammed EL-Erian, CEO of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), the California-based investment management firm, officially proposed the concept of new normal in the sense of in-depth adjustment in the post-crisis era in a report entitled Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries (EL-Erian,2010). Since then, the concept has quickly spread in popularity to interpret characteristics of the world economy in the post-crisis ear. For example, Richard Clarida, a professor of economics and international affairs at Columbia University and a global strategic advisor to PIMCO (Clarida,2010) stated that, in the new normal, the economic characteristics of developed economies (high-income countries or industrialised countries) can be summarized as “low growth, high unemployment and low return on investment”. In Chia, the term ‘new normal’ is closely linked with a new stage of the country’s economic transformation and upgrading. In may 2014, president Xi Jinping visited Henan province. When addressing the economic situation, he said: “China’s development is still in a period with important and strategic opportunities, and we need to boost confidence, adapt to the new normal from the current features of China’s economic development and keep a common strategic mindset.” On 29 July, in a forum for non-party members held in Beijing’s Zhongnanhai, Xi Jinping again referred to the ‘new normal’ in the context of the prevailing economic situation, pointing out that: “It is necessary to correctly understand the characteristics of China’s economic development stage, further boost confidence, adapt to the new normal, and jointly promote sustained and healthy economic development.” Later that year, on 10 November, at the APEC CEO summit held in Beijing, Xi delivered a keynote speech that focused on the speed of change, structural optimization and dynamic transformation under the new normal of China’s economic development. He then expounded on the four new development opportunities in China brought about by the new normal: first, although the speed of China’s economic growth is slowing down, the actual increment is still considerable; second, China’s economic growth is becoming more stable, with more diversified growth momentum; third, China’s economic structure is being optimized and upgraded, with more stable development prospects; fourth, the Chinese government is vigorously decentralizing, giving rise to accelerated market dynamics. At a central economic work conference on 9 December 2014, the new normal was again identified as a logical starting point of China’s economic development strategy for current and future periods. In this important conference, President Xi gave a detailed analysis of China’s economy under the new normal from the perspective of consumer demand, exports and international balance of payments, production capacity and industrial organization, comparative advantages of production factors, characteristics of market competition, resource and environmental constraints, accumulation and resolution of financial risks, resource allocation model and macro-control mode. He concluded: “The entry of China’s economic development into the new normal is an inevitable reflection of its economic development characteristics at the current stage, which is not subject to change by human will. Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal and leading the new normal, are the great logic underpinning China’s economic development for the current and future periods.” Obviously, the new-normal concept has been formed relatively independently at home and abroad. China’s new normal should be seen as President Xi Jinping’s expression of creative transformation: if the global new normal is regarded as a pessimistic assessment of future world economic trends, then China’s new normal contains positive elements of economic evolution towards a more advanced future, involving a more complex division of labour and a more rational structure. II The ‘new normal’ is a strategic concept that runs through history. The word ‘new' divides global development since the late 1980s into two periods, each with systemic differences. In terms of external characteristics, the two periods are differentiated by high and low economic growth, and naturally also by intrinsic differences in macroeconomic variables, such as employment, prices, interest rates, exchange rates, balance of payments, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and money supply and demand. With regard to internal root causes, there are also different traits in the physical infrastructure needed to support long-term economic development, such as technological innovation and its level of industrialisation, population structure, the efficiency in the supply of key elements, the relationship between savings and investment, and the real interest rate level in the state of equilibrium between savings and investment. Therefore, the concept of new normal shows us that, in recognition of the current situation and in planning for the future, we must first settle down to review the road we have travelled, carefully analyse the ‘old normal’, and clarify where we started from a few decades ago, what is the trend of development why we cannot continue on the old track, the direction of future development and what kind of real economic base and institutional mechanisms need to be created to achieve this transition. Determining the ‘new normal’ indicates the fundamentals needed for domestic and international economic development in current and future periods. It reminds us that the glory of the old normal may have its attractions, but that in practice it may be difficult to turn back the clock. Therefore, looking ahead, we must fully adjust our ideas, attitude, strategy and policy, to adapt positively to the new normal, learn the way of production and life under the new normal, and actively lead the new normal towards a higher development goal. There is no doubt that the new normal contains new dynamics for development. In order to discover, exploit and make good use of the dynamics, we need to make a revolutionary adjustment to our old and trusted development way. push ahead with painful reform of the economic structure skewed by the old normal, and lead the new normal with a high degree of wisdom. This means that reform will constitute a regular task under the conditions of the new normal. Given the fact that the new normal is a global phenomenon, it is logical to assume that the world has entered a ‘period of reform and competition' since the 2008 financial crisis. This means that those countries with the most profound understanding, the most comprehensive strategy, the most determination and the greatest commitment towards urgent, arduous and diverse reform, will seize the initiative in the future global competition. Undoubtedly, in this regard, China is once again at the forefront of the world: the determination to comprehensively deepen reform and the rule of law approved by the third and fourth plenary sessions of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC), and the central economic work conference held in 2014,have outlined for us a complete programme for carrying out a new round of reform and achieving the China dream.

缘起 获取知识的途径大抵有三：读书、听讲和实践。读书可品书香、摒铜臭，且有反复揣摩之便、自我体悟之乐。听讲则隐隐有书院之传，优势在现场感和互动——于讲者，现场可能灵光乍现；于听者，常能浮想联翩，触类旁通；讲者与听者互动，则可相互激励、讲评相长，搞得好，发掘出新课题、铺陈出锦绣文章，并非难事。实践则是获取知识的根本途径，它不仅是一切知识的源泉，而且是主观见诸客观的社会活动，更是体现了人们获取知识的最终目的。 简言之，读书、听讲和实践，对于获取知识而言，各有其独到之处，其功效相互不可替代。然而，如果从实行的角度考察，则三者的差别立现：读书和实践可由人们自我实现，而听讲则须有所组织，于是就有了兴办学术机构的必要性—这也就意味着，组织各类学术讨论与讲座，属学术机构之本分。 国家金融与发展实验室自2015年整合重组并获中央正式命名为首批国家高端智库以来，一直致力于举办各种类型的讲坛、论坛、讨会、读书会、研习会等，一年凡二十余次。此类会议选题广泛，讨论集中，参会者名家云集，且来自各个领域，大家的发言直抒胸臆，不落襄臼，因而很受欢迎。遗憾此类会议中的多数在当时都不能面向社会，产生的影响有限，因而就有将会议详细记录整理出来，结集出版的动议。这就是实验室“立言”书系的由来。既然以“立言”自命，当然以展示讲者的“精气神”为第一要务。这就是我们不做四平八稳、无懈可击的论文集，而选择实录形式的缘由。 我们的长期合作伙伴社会科学文献出版社得知丛书的出版计划，立即给予了专业化的回应，精心设计的版式、装帧乃至纸型的选择，都与丛书的气质契合，为从书增色颇多，在此一并致谢！

缘起 获取知识的途径大抵有三：读书、听讲和实践。读书可品书香、摒铜臭，且有反复揣摩之便、自我体悟之乐。听讲则隐隐有书院之传，优势在现场感和互动——于讲者，现场可能灵光乍现；于听者，常能浮想联翩，触类旁通；讲者与听者互动，则可相互激励、讲评相长，搞得好，发掘出新课题、铺陈出锦绣文章，并非难事。实践则是获取知识的根本途径，它不仅是一切知识的源泉，而且是主观见诸客观的社会活动，更是体现了人们获取知识的最终目的。 简言之，读书、听讲和实践，对于获取知识而言，各有其独到之处，其功效相互不可替代。然而，如果从实行的角度考察，则三者的差别立现：读书和实践可由人们自我实现，而听讲则须有所组织，于是就有了兴办学术机构的必要性—这也就意味着，组织各类学术讨论与讲座，属学术机构之本分。 国家金融与发展实验室自2015年整合重组并获中央正式命名为首批国家高端智库以来，一直致力于举办各种类型的讲坛、论坛、讨会、读书会、研习会等，一年凡二十余次。此类会议选题广泛，讨论集中，参会者名家云集，且来自各个领域，大家的发言直抒胸臆，不落襄臼，因而很受欢迎。遗憾此类会议中的多数在当时都不能面向社会，产生的影响有限，因而就有将会议详细记录整理出来，结集出版的动议。这就是实验室“立言”书系的由来。既然以“立言”自命，当然以展示讲者的“精气神”为第一要务。这就是我们不做四平八稳、无懈可击的论文集，而选择实录形式的缘由。 我们的长期合作伙伴社会科学文献出版社得知丛书的出版计划，立即给予了专业化的回应，精心设计的版式、装帧乃至纸型的选择，都与丛书的气质契合，为从书增色颇多，在此一并致谢！