在外部冲击持续、国内经济结构性减速的情况下，2019年前三季度中国经济实现了6.2%的增长，分季度看呈逐季递减之势，未来经济增速继续下移或将延续。随着中国经济的发展，中美之间经济互补性正在减弱，对抗性的成分逐步增多，中国在传统优势逐步减退的情况下，必须持续推动经济高质量发展，逐步适应以内需为主和创新驱动的“大国模型”。

2018年的下半年房地产市场不及上半年的表现，2019年的房地产市场表现与2018年的走势类似，上半年表现较好，进入第三季度之后各项数据均出现调整，而且比2018年第三季度调整的幅度更大。无疑，这是政策调控的结果。自今年第二季度以来，房地产金融政策明显收紧，7月底的政治局会议强调“不再把房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”。第三季度房地产市场的各项数据在走弱，市场的分化在加剧，房地产调控政策的效果正在显现。

今年双11刚开场1小时03分59秒，天猫成交额就突破了1000亿元，比去年提前了43分钟，全天成交额更是达到了2684亿元。与此同时，另一组数据更应引起注意：今年由于天猫向商家全面开放了消费信贷能力，开通花呗分期后，商家销售额同比增长超过90%。

从商品货币演化到信用货币，货币自身的价值属性不断向交易的便利性妥协。然而，带着降低交易成本之使命而降生的货币，反而成了增加交易成本的源头之一。这集中体现在国际经济和金融交易活动中。那么，数字货币能否解决，或者能在多大程度上缓解全球经济、金融和货币体系造成的失衡问题？发行数字货币（DC/EP）能否成为推动人民币国际化的可行方式？

10月主要经济数据都已经公布，工业增加值、固定资产投资和社会消费品零售总额的增速，都低于前值和预期，经济数据再现季末跳升而季初走弱。

本文研究了在贷款市场垄断竞争条件下银行的利率定价，并参考相关研究构建了一个银行多部门利率定价模型，说明了在贷款市场垄断竞争条件下银行对贷款利率和债券收益率定价的差异，并基于推导出的定价方程进行实证检验。结果表明，银行对债券的定价主要受无风险利率影响，但贷款利率不跟随无风险利率变动，且与银行综合负债成本显著正相关，也与银行贷款规模、不良率等指标显著相关。本文进一步通过实证检验对银行贷款不参考市场利率进行定价的原因进行了分析，认为贷款基准利率的长期存在是主要原因。最后，提出淡出贷款基准利率和优化贷款市场报价利率（LPR）形成机制等政策建议。

2019年前三季度，银行业在加大金融服务实体经济的大背景下，信贷投放和资产规模增长较快，带来了营业收入和利润的增长及改善。银行资产规模依旧保持较高增速，三季度商业银行资产规模较上年同期增长了13%，大型银行资产增速要高于中小银行；银行业整体利润增长保持平稳，同比增长8.8%，部分大中型上市银行营业收入同比增速达到10%以上，但城商行首次出现净利润增速为负；整体不良贷款率1.86%，与年初基本持平，大型银行和股份行不良率稳中有降，但中小银行不良率依然处在上行通道；大部分银行已经按照要求压缩了逾贷比，多数银行逾贷比均压缩到了100%以内，不良贷款真实性得到有效提升；风险抵补方面，商业银行整体拨备覆盖率为187.6%，大型商业银行的拨备覆盖率保持上升，股份制商业银行逐步企稳，但城商行和农商行拨备覆盖率仍在下降；商业银行整体资本充足率为14.54%，一直保持上升的态势，高于监管要求的10.5%的底线，三季度由于永续债发行增加，其他一级资本占比过低的问题得到一定程度缓解；商业银行整体流动性覆盖率稳步提升，达到140%以上，但不同类型银行流动性分层现象日趋明显，流动性风险可能将是未来一段时间中小银行面临的最严重挑战。 未来商业银行应重点从以下方面加强应对：一是中小银行应利用政策红利，通过发行永续债等多渠道补充资本，优化资本结构；二是理财子公司应积极应对净资本、非标债权认定和净值管理的监管要求，培育对标准化产品的投资管理能力；三是继续发力普惠金融，深化金融供给侧结构性改革，打造综合产品服务体系；四是积极应对LPR新规则，完善银行资产负债管理能力，有效应对利率市场化冲击；五是完善金融资产分类标准，做实不良贷款，并在此基础上合理、充分地计提准备金。 ...... 本报告全部内容详见附件。

在经济增长压力加剧、国际经贸格局不确定性较大的背景下，市场对基本面的担忧导致了避险情绪发酵，宽松预期再起驱动利率下行、资产价格上行。2019年8月末，负利率债券市值规模超17万亿美元，创历史新高。

Since China's reform and opening began in 1978, the country has come a long way on the path of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Over thirty years of reform, efforts and sustained spectacular economic growth have turned China into the world's second-largest economy and wrought many profound changes in the Chinese society. These historically significant developments have been garnering increasing attention from scholars, governments, and the general public alike around the world since the 1990s, when the newest wave of China studies began to gather steam. Some of the hottest topics have included the so-called China miracle, Chinese phenomenon, Chinese experience, Chinese path, and the Chinese model. Homegrown researchers have soon followed suit. Already hugely productive, this vibrant field is putting out a large number of books each year, with Social Sciences Academic Press alone having published hundreds of titles on a wide range of subjects. Because most of these books have been written and published in Chinese; however, readership has been limited outside China even among many who study China-for whom English is still the lingua franca. This language barrier has been an impediment to efforts by academia, business communities, and policy-makers in other countries to form a thorough understanding of contemporary China, of what is distinct about China's past and present may mean not only for her future but also for the future of the world. The need to remove such an impediment is both real and urgent, and the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China's Development Path is my answer to the call. This series features some of the most notable achievements from the last 20 years by scholars in China in a variety of research topics related to reform and opening. They include both theoretical explorations and empirical studies and cover economy, society, politics, law, culture, and ecology; the six areas in which reform and opening policies have had the deepest impact and farthest-reaching consequences for the country. Authors for the series have also tried to articulate their visions of the "Chinese Dream” and how the country can realize it in these fields and beyond. All of the editors and authors for the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China's Development Path are both longtime students of reform and opening and recognized authorities in their respective academic fields. Their credentials and expertise lend credibility to these books, each of which has been subjected to a rigorous peer review process for inclusion in the series. As part of the Reform and Development Program under the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film, and Television of the People's Republic of China, the series is published by Springer, a Germany-based academic publisher of international repute, and distributed overseas. I am confident that it will help fill a lacuna in studies of China in the era of reform and opening.